Tropical Storm Sara forms in Caribbean; NHC addresses possible Florida landfall

Tropical Storm Sara formed in the Caribbean Sea midday Thursday, packing top sustained winds of 40 mph. The slow-moving storm has been drifting toward Central America and is expected to strike the region this weekend.
Sara was named a tropical storm by the National Hurricane Center hours after becoming a tropical depression.
A tropical storm warning was issued for most of Honduras’ Caribbean coast. Parts of the coast were also placed into a hurricane watch, but those watches were lifted on Thursday.
The National Hurricane Center said the storm is in a region conducive to development, but land interaction could keep the system from growing.
Because of the storm’s slow-moving nature, the National Hurricane Center expects much of Honduras’ Caribbean coast to receive at least 12 inches of rain, with some areas receiving over 20 inches.
Forecasters say that the rain could lead to “life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.”
By early next week, the system could meander toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center addressed the potential of a tropical storm or hurricane striking Florida next week. The U.S. is not included in Tropical Depression 19’s five-day forecast.
At the end of the National Hurricane Center’s five-day forecast, the National Hurricane Center expects that it will be centered over the southern Gulf of Mexico as a tropical depression.
“It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast,” the National Hurricane Center’s Andrew Hagen wrote.
Although hurricane season is not over until the end of November, direct strikes to the U.S. in November are rare. The last time a hurricane came ashore in the U.S. in November was Hurricane Nicole in 2022. Before that, it was Hurricane Kate in 1985.
The 2024 hurricane season has been more active than usual. The Atlantic basin averaged 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes annually from 1990 through 2020. This season, 18 named systems have formed, 11 becoming hurricanes. There have been five major hurricanes to develop this year.
This hurricane season has lived up to expectations. In May, National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center said they expected the 2024 season to have 17 to 25 tropical storms, eight to 12 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes.
Record sea surface temperatures and La Niña conditions fueled this year’s above-average hurricane season.
As ocean temperatures rise, the very definition of a “normal” season has shifted. 2024 is the ninth consecutive year with at least 14 tropical storms forming.